A warming climate will increase the number of tropical cyclones and their intensity in the North Atlantic, potentially creating more and stronger hurricanes, according to simulations using a high-resolution, global climate model.
“Unfortunately, it’s not great news for people living in coastal regions,” said Christina Patricola, an Iowa State University assistant professor of geological and atmospheric sciences, an affiliate of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory in California and a study leader. “Atlantic hurricane seasons will become even more active in the future, and hurricanes will be even more intense.”
The research team ran climate simulations using the Department of Energy’s Energy Exascale Earth System Model and found that tropical cyclone frequency could increase 66% during active North Atlantic hurricane seasons by the end of this century. (Those seasons are typically characterized by La Niña conditions – unusually cool surface water in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean – and the positive phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode – warmer surface temperatures in the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean).
The projected numbers of tropical cyclones could increase by 34% during inactive North Atlantic hurricane seasons. (Inactive seasons generally occur during El Niño conditions with warmer surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Pacific Ocean and the negative phase of the Atlantic Meridional Mode with cooler surface temperatures in the northern tropical Atlantic Ocean.)
In addition, the simulations project an increase in storm intensity during the active and inactive storm seasons.
You can read the full article at the Iowa State University News Service website.